State revenue estimate shows slight growth in 2026, small dip projected for 2027; officials warn reserves will shrink

At a briefing on the state's consensus revenue estimate, presenters released updated forecasts that show modest revenue growth in fiscal 2026 and a small decrease projected for 2027, and warned the state will continue to draw down reserves unless expenditures are reduced or revenues increase.

Shirley, a presenter for the consensus revenue estimating group, said the total receipt estimate for fiscal year 2026 is $10,220,000,000, "which represents an increase of a $165,900,000 or 1.6% relative to the spring estimate," and that the initial estimate for fiscal year 2027 is $10,133,000,000, "which represents a decrease of 93,900,000 or 0.9% below the newly revised fiscal year 26 estimate." The group emphasized that most forecast changes are modest and frequently involve shifts among inflation, real growth and nominal growth rather than large swings in receipts.

The presentation said the estimating cycle incorporated the effects of federal tax legislation passed over the summer where Kansas conforms to federal changes; officials noted those changes will have small net…