DEED analyst: Minnesota job growth slowing as health care drives demand; long-term unemployment share rising

Tim Moniel, Twin Cities regional labor market analyst for the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), presented county- and industry-level labor data to the board, saying the information should inform program planning across the Minnesota State system. "Health care and social assistance is leading the charge far and away," Moniel said, summarizing a repeated theme of his presentation.

Moniel walked trustees through DEED’s suite of data tools — including occupational employment and wage statistics and graduate employment outcomes — and offered to provide custom reports for individual Minnesota State colleges and universities. He used Dakota County Technical College as a local example, noting programs such as practical nursing, vocational nursing, nursing assistance, electrical and power transmission installation, vehicle maintenance, and precision metalworking show strong alignment with employer demand and earnings.

Statewide, Moniel said, Minnesota’s unemployment rate was 3.6% in August, compared with 4.3% nationally; the broader U-6 measure was about 7%. He highlighted a rise in the long-term share of unemployment to 18.5% from 10.7% the previous year and described that increase as a concern for workers’ reentry prospects. "When you add all those measurements up, the unemployment rate in Minnesota is 7%, and that is up from 6.1% this time last year," he said when discussing broader measures.

Moniel explained methodological differences between the household survey-based unemployment rate and unemployment-insurance (UI) data, and he said DEED can provide educational-attainment breakdowns for the unemployed on request. He reported Minnesota’s labor force at about 3.16 million in August 2025, up roughly 20,000 year over year, and summarized DEED projections that anticipate modest net job growth over the next decade plus substantial replacement openings as current workers leave or retire.

Industry detail was central to Moniel’s presentation. He said health care and social assistance account for roughly 550,000 jobs in Minnesota and are the largest employer sector by a wide margin; manufacturing is the second-largest sector with about 320,000 jobs. Moniel also noted geographic variation: some outside-metro counties (Scott, Carver) have been among the fastest-growing areas for employment, while Hennepin and Ramsey remain the state’s largest counties by jobs and population.

Board members asked for follow-up cross-tabulations, including education levels among unemployed people and comparisons between UI claimants and household-survey counts. Moniel offered to provide those data and emphasized DEED’s willingness to support local program and outreach planning.

The presentation closed with an offer to distribute slides and to work with individual campuses on local labor-market briefs.