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Chandler Unified consultants point to aging households, falling births and ESA use as drivers of multi‑year enrollment declines
Summary
Applied Economics told the Chandler Unified governing board on Oct. 22 that the district’s enrollment decline stems primarily from demographic change — falling birth rates and an aging, lower‑turnover household base — and from expanded school‑choice options, including Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs).
Applied Economics consultant Rick Brammer told the Chandler Unified governing board on Oct. 22 that the district’s long run enrollment picture has shifted from rapid growth in the 2000s to a protracted decline driven mainly by demographic change and by the introduction of new school‑choice options.
Brammer, who has prepared district enrollment studies for more than three decades, presented 25 years of 40th‑day headcount data and a pair of forecasting models — a regional (top‑down) model and a detailed, parcel‑level (bottom‑up) grid model. He said Chandler’s total population has continued to grow but the share aged 0–18 has fallen and the cohort sizes that feed elementary grades are now much smaller than the high‑school cohorts that followed them.
“Many of the factors stacked up against enrollment are demographic — aging householders, lower birth rates — and the ESA…
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