Widow rockfish assessment splits scientists and industry; council delays final action
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Summary
A revised 2025 widow rockfish update produced a much lower stock estimate and recommendations for steep ACL reductions; the SSC asked for an additional supplemental review because key stat authors and many SSC members were unavailable during the earlier supplemental review. Industry, GAP and GMT urged more review and offered alternative runs; the council adopted catch-only projections for other species but deferred a final decision on widow until further SSC/stat interaction.
A revised 2025 update to the widow rockfish assessment prompted sharp debate at the Pacific Fishery Management Council over model assumptions, data inputs and the appropriate management response.
The Scientific and Statistical Committee told the council the October 2025 model is an "improvement on previous models" but that the SSC could not yet endorse the model as the best scientific information available (BSIA) because many NOAA and stat members were unavailable during the supplemental review. "The SSC strongly recommends against proceeding with management based solely on the 2019 update assessment or the 2015 benchmark assessment," SSC representatives said, and requested an additional two half-day review in early 2026 to allow statisticians and panel members to fully interrogate model diagnostics and outstanding items.
Industry and advisory panels urged additional caution. Jeff Lackey (Groundfish Advisory Panel) and other harvesters said the October model produces an improbable 40% coastwide spawning-biomass decline and pointed to hyperstability and localized fishing as reasons the fishery'dependent catch-per-unit-effort does not match model outputs. Yelena Novak (Oregon Trawl Commission) noted processor and fleet concentration near Oregon ports and urged the council not to adopt the model for setting 2027-2028 catch limits.
Groundfish Management Team and GAP provided suggested sensitivity runs and alternative approaches the council could use if the model is not adopted as BSIA (for example, applying 2019-model base assumptions with updated hook-and-line corrections). The council adopted catch-only projections for Oregon black rockfish and bocaccio, but deferred any final action on the widow update and directed staff to coordinate the SSC's requested supplemental review and to provide terms of reference and scheduling.
The council also asked staff to consider how to provide the GMT guidance for overwinter specifications work given the outstanding assessment issues and asked for a response on timing so the supplemental SSC review can be completed before key specification deadlines.