Commissioners back $7,000 proposal for local demographic forecast amid doubts about state projections

Commissioners and staff signaled support for hiring International Strategic Analysis (ISA) to produce a county-specific demographic and population forecast after attendees questioned projections that show Medina County declining in population.

An unidentified speaker who presented the item (addressed in the transcript as "Steve") said local data collected by planning staff and the economic development corporation contradicts a Department of Development projection showing population loss. He said the committee reviewed two proposals and recommended proceeding with ISA’s $7,000 proposal by Michael Wiedekall. "We do have contingencies of funds to be able to do this," he said, adding that ISA could present results publicly to elected officials and stakeholders.

Speakers discussed adding a sales-tax revenue projection as part of the work so the forecast could better inform fiscal planning if property-tax growth stalls. Finance Director Brett Thomas and others noted contingency funds are available and suggested exploring NOACA climate action funds as a possible grant source to cover related studies.

Participants emphasized speed so the forecast can feed into the county’s solid waste management plan update and other planning efforts. The committee requested staff proceed with contracting and to consider whether ISA could include an analysis of potential sales-tax impacts as an add-on.

The discussion did not record a formal roll-call vote on a contract award during the meeting; participants expressed support and directed staff to move forward with negotiations and contracting steps.