Elyria City Council on Monday spent its strategic planning session on a sanitation department rate study that recommended near-term increases and operational changes to keep the fund solvent.

Adam Lotera of Ray Business Advisors presented an update to a 2018 study using 2023–24 financials and forecasts to 2031. Lotera said the department’s costs — dominated by wages and benefits (about 47%) and waste removal (about 26%) — are outpacing revenues. He noted the city deployed a $5 monthly increase earlier in 2025 and that a new $22,000,000 PublixWorks facility will affect operations going forward.

Lotera modeled three scenarios: no rate increase (baseline), 3% annual increases and 5% annual increases. Under the baseline, he projected the sanitation fund would flip to a negative net cash position in 2026 and approach an approximately $5.1 million deficit by 2031. The 3% scenario postponed but did not eliminate decline; the 5% scenario kept net revenues and cash flow positive through 2031, producing an estimated $2.7 million net cash cushion.

He also reported the city’s recycling program costs roughly $1.6 million annually—about 24% of total sanitation expenses—while representing under 5% of tonnage; conservative modeling suggested eliminating or substantially reducing recycling could save about $750,000 but would reduce sustainability outcomes and require operational tradeoffs. Lotera recommended a balanced strategy: begin with 5% annual increases for three years, continue cost-control measures (maintenance and capital planning), and maintain community engagement to communicate value.

Council discussed route-structure studies that could eliminate routes if pickup days change, an annual capital plan of $400,000–$450,000 to replace aging trucks, and the possibility of using incoming marijuana tax receipts or other general-fund sources for short-term capital. Council compared projected municipal rates to private providers: one projection showed a 2028 municipal rate near $38.64 versus a Republic estimate of about $20.51. Several council members emphasized retaining senior pickup and local service features that private providers might not offer.

Councilman Tillett moved to maintain the sanitation department and to refer the proposed rates and related issues to the finance committee for final review; Miss Mitchell seconded. The motion carried on a voice vote and the referral was approved.