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Zonda presents demographic report: housing growth persists even as kindergarten enrollment falls
Summary
Zonda presented a fall demographic report showing strong housing starts and a large inventory of vacant developed lots, but the district recorded a year‑over‑year decline of about 131 students. The firm cited schools of choice, charter and virtual growth, and homeschooling as contributors and proposed a spring mobility study to clarify where students have moved.
Consultant firm Zonda presented a fall demographic and enrollment forecast to the Montgomery ISD board on Nov. 18, describing a district with strong housing activity and lot inventory but with short‑term enrollment pressures driven by kindergarten declines and school‑choice trends.
Mister Rockey (Zonda) told trustees the local housing market has rebounded from the COVID era and noted 167 housing starts in the third quarter and 454 closings year‑to‑date in the service area covered by the report. He said the district has a substantial inventory of vacant developed lots — for example, roughly 2,500 lots in the Lincoln and Lone Star areas — which provides supply for future housing and potential enrollment growth.
Rockey noted variation in student yield by subdivision: Clopton Farms showed a high yield of about 0.946 students per home, while other areas such as Lone Star Landing had lower yields (0.547). He said district‑wide multifamily construction includes about 239 units under construction and approximately 1,650 multifamily units planned.
On enrollment, Rockey said the district experienced a decline of about 131 students last year, the first decline in more than a decade in the district. He attributed declines broadly to schools of choice, rising charter and virtual enrollment statewide, and increased homeschooling. "Kindergarten's the biggest challenge," Rockey said, explaining that lower kindergarten capture rates will propagate as cohorts move through the system.
To better understand where students who left MISD now enroll, Zonda will perform a mobility study in spring (April–May) that will track devices and other signals to locate former district students and clarify attrition patterns. Rockey also discussed uncertainty from state voucher programs and suggested that initial voucher use may skew toward private schools and homeschool families.
Rockey presented low/mid/high enrollment scenarios: a low case that would put district enrollment below roughly 9,600 students and a higher case approaching about 9,800, dependent on kindergarten capture rates and housing yields. He warned trustees that while housing growth can support long‑term enrollment growth, near‑term cohort declines and school‑choice patterns make short‑term planning and capacity decisions more uncertain.
Board members asked about how Zonda classifies developments as 'future' versus 'active' and how lots are counted; Rockey described the thresholds used (lot delivery to builders, moving dirt, streets poured) and said the firm includes near‑term phases in forecasts while monitoring builder turnover and delivery.
Trustees expressed concern that visible construction in the community contrasts with the enrollment decline; Zonda reiterated that housing supply and student yield interact with school choice trends and homeschooling, and said the planned mobility study could prompt adjustments to forecasts.
Zonda recommended conservative enrollment and ADA revenue assumptions for budgeting given uncertainty and pledged to return updated projections after the mobility analysis.
