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District finance director outlines budget forecast, credits recurring referendum for short-term boost, warns of long-term pressure
Summary
District staff presented a budget forecast showing a near-term revenue boost driven by a recent recurring referendum (about $4.3 million) and a state per-pupil increase, but noted a drop of about 52 students this year, projected further small declines, and cautioned that ongoing expense growth could produce deficits once referendum support ends.
District finance staff presented a multi‑year budget forecast emphasizing how enrollment, revenue limits and referendums shape the district’s finances.
Erica explained that the district’s revenue limit and per‑pupil aid together make up roughly 86.5% of operational funds, and that last year’s recurring referendum added about $4,300,000 to the district’s base revenue limit. The state also provided a $325‑per‑student increase; the district expects an additional $600,000 for the next two years. Those factors produced a significant one‑year increase in 25/26 revenue available to the district.
Erica said the district experienced a net enrollment decline of about 52 students this year — roughly double what staff had expected — driven by small cohort decreases across many grades. Staff project about a 25‑student decline next year and then a leveling off, but emphasized the difficulty of forecasting cohort changes. Board members asked how cuts to state cut scores and changes to the state report‑card calculations affect trend interpretation; Dr. Keeser agreed that DPI measurement changes complicate direct year‑to‑year comparisons.
On the expense side, the forecast used planning assumptions including 3.5% salary increases, an 8% medical‑insurance trend, and smaller percentage increases for dental, utilities and supplies. Erica noted that over 75% of operational spending is salaries and benefits, and that staffing is the largest ongoing cost driver.
Using those assumptions, the district’s Baird model showed a short‑term surplus in the next two years driven mainly by the referendum and a higher special‑education reimbursement percentage, but staff cautioned that ongoing investments or added recurring costs could deepen future deficits once the referendum amount sunsets.
Board members asked for follow‑up on several items: staff will translate current cut scores to provide a clearer comparison with prior scoring frameworks, investigate the FabLab/Innovation Center October invoice noted on the consent agenda, and analyze how the district’s 26.9% rate of economically disadvantaged students affects comparative budget outcomes.
