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CDRPC projects modest enrollment declines; kindergarten cohort grows to 544
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Summary
Capital District Regional Planning Commission projections show total enrollment at 9,274 this year (down 81), kindergarten at 544 (up 27), and a projected 9,232 students next year; housing trends and UPK demand were presented as context.
Madison Hirschkel, GIS and data analyst with the Capital District Regional Planning Commission, presented Shenendehowa’s 2025–26 enrollment projections on Nov. 18.
Hirschkel said total district enrollment this year is 9,274 students, a decline of 81 from the previous year, while kindergarten enrollment is 544 — a 27‑student increase. Using survivor multipliers (grade‑to‑grade retention ratios) and birth data, the CDRPC projects next year’s total enrollment at about 9,232 students and expects only slight declines in subsequent years.
The presentation reviewed cohort breakouts: K–5 at 4,025 (down 66), grades 6–8 at 2,229 (down 61) and grades 9–12 at 3,020 (up 47). CDRPC analysts noted that birth counts are lagged (most recent available: 2023 births = 585) and that estimated births for 2024 and 2025 were used to fuel the projection’s final two years. Hirschkel flagged that the birth‑to‑kindergarten survival multiplier for the current cohort is higher than recent averages, accounting for a notable kindergarten increase.
Housing context included decennial counts (29,960 housing units within district boundaries) and a median sale price reported from GCAR of $480,000 — about $30,000 higher than the prior year — with days on market decreasing. The presentation also showed unmet demand for UPK: roughly 30% of eligible children are enrolled in the district UPK lottery this year, indicating capacity constraints.
Board members asked about other districts that moved to full‑day kindergarten and whether that decision affected enrollment; Hirschkel offered to research comparable districts and provide follow‑up data. The board thanked CDRPC for the detailed methodology and for the demographic resources referenced.
