Des Moines Independent Comm School District finance staff presented a five‑year budget forecast on Nov. 18, saying declining enrollment and rising staff costs create a large fiscal shortfall and will require a mix of one‑time and recurring changes.

The district’s presenter summarized district enrollment as the principal revenue driver, saying served student counts fell 'from 32,000 to 28,600' over the past several years — a decline the presenter said 'equates to almost $27,000,000.' He added the district is 'losing close to 650 students for FY27' under current projections and modeled scenarios that assume 2%, 1% or 0% increases in state supplemental aid (SSA). Under those scenarios the presenter told the board the district would trigger budget guarantee protections funded by property taxes and requiring board certification.

Why it matters: the presenter warned that SSA and voucher/ESA trends materially change available revenue. He noted open‑enrollment outflows rose from about 1,600 to 3,000 students — a net OE out of roughly 2,200 students that the presenter estimated at around $17.5 million — and highlighted growth in charter and ESA participation as contributors to the loss.

The presentation itemized unbudgeted and new expenses that increased FY26 costs by roughly $5.6 million, including dropout prevention, gifted‑and‑talented staffing and a $1.2 million elementary science curriculum adoption. A broader set of operational and maintenance items the presenter described as a roughly $95 million category included $40 million of maintenance/operations and recurring transportation and staffing costs.

The five‑year forecast rests on explicit assumptions: salary growth capped at 3%, health benefits inflation at about 6%, modest increases in other expense categories and conservative enrollment declines. Under those assumptions staff‑related costs remain the largest line, and health benefits are a major driver: the presenter said health benefits represent roughly $75 million of district cost (another slide showed $84 million in a different view), with about 4,500 contracts and 12,300 covered persons; he stated a per‑contract cost of $16,500 and a per‑covered‑person cost of $6,100.

Staffing and savings proposals: presenters described a multi‑part plan to reduce the gap that mixes attrition, targeted facility retirements and a new staffing‑standards model. On staffing, Josie (chief of HR) previewed a staffing‑standards framework that would tie baseline staffing to enrollment (October 1 snapshot) and then layer additional supports for higher‑need buildings. The board asked for a historical review of recent position additions, department‑level staffing increases and ROI information for proposed investments such as gifted programming; presenters agreed to provide those details in follow‑ups.

Balancing choices and next steps: presenters emphasized the plan’s caveats and placeholders — notably a $2 million placeholder for strategic planning and a multi‑year timeline to refine curriculum costs, reimagined‑education investments (the presentation referenced the district’s $265,000,000 reimagined education GO bond), and a demographic study expected in early January to 'true up' enrollment forecasts. The presenter recommended further board work sessions (a March comprehensive budget overview and a March 24 public hearing were listed on the timeline) and said the health‑cost committee (including DMEA and AFSCME representatives) hopes to have recommendations by February–March.

The meeting gave the board a roadmap for the coming months: tighter assumptions, more granular staffing analyses and a sequence of public and board sessions to finalize the FY27 proposed tax notice and budget certification.