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OEA says Oregon avoiding recession for now; recent one‑time corporate payments lift near‑term revenue outlook
Summary
Office of Economic Analysis told the joint revenue committees that the Oregon and national economies are decelerating but not in recession, that a 2026 reacceleration is projected, and that a recent influx of corporate tax payments — largely settling prior years — accounts for most of a near‑term improvement in the revenue forecast.
The Office of Economic Analysis told the House Interim Committee on Revenue and the Senate interim committee on finance and revenue that Oregon has continued to “steer clear of recession” even as economic growth slows, and that a modest reacceleration is expected in 2026 if current forecasts hold. Carl Riccadonna, Oregon’s chief economist, said the state’s outlook reflects a range of private and federal forecasts but remains exposed to several major risks, including a pending Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and missing federal data from a recent government shutdown.
The revenue outlook, Michael Kennedy of OEA said, improved largely because of a recent influx of corporate…
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