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OEA: Oregon avoiding recession for now; $309 million revenue uptick tied to one-time corporate settlements
Summary
State economists told joint revenue committees that Oregon has so far avoided recession and the Q4 revenue forecast improved about $309 million, largely because of one-time corporate tax settlements and timing changes from federal tax law; risks from a pending tariff ruling and missing federal data remain.
SALEM — The Office of Economic Analysis told the joint Senate and House interim revenue committees on Thursday that Oregon’s economy has continued to decelerate without tipping into recession, and that an unexpected rise in corporate tax receipts improved the state’s revenue outlook by about $309 million.
"We have continued to steer clear of recession," said Carl Riccadonna, State of Oregon chief economist, summarizing OEA’s updated Q4 (December) economic forecast. Riccadonna warned the committees that the outlook still faces major risks including a pending Supreme Court tariff ruling, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path and recent federal data gaps caused by a government shutdown.
The revenue update came from Michael Kennedy of the Office of Economic Analysis, who said the $309 million improvement is composed of a modest economic boost and a larger, more specific inflow of corporate income…
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