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State economist: modest reacceleration expected but Oregon still faces a budget shortfall
Summary
State Chief Economist Carl Ricadonna told the House committee the updated revenue forecast points to a modest reacceleration into 2026 driven by interest-rate cuts and federal tax changes, but Oregon remains in a projected $63 million deficit and faces data uncertainty from earlier federal shutdowns.
Carl Ricadonna, State of Oregon chief economist, told the House Committee on Economic Development, Small Business and Trade on Nov. 19 that the state—s updated revenue forecast shows modest improvement but leaves Oregon still operating with a budget shortfall.
Ricadonna said the state is in a decelerating economy that is likely to reaccelerate in 2026 as interest-rate cuts, federal tax changes and lower-than-expected tariffs feed through to activity. "My own office would ascribe the probability of recession in the next 12 months at about 25%," he said, noting private-sector forecasters put the risk slightly higher.
The presentation focused on three drivers of the projected upturn: expected Federal Reserve rate cuts,…
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