Oregon Ways and Means subcommittee hears warnings that 5% public-safety cuts would strain courts, prisons, police and youth services

The Joint Ways and Means Public Safety Subcommittee met Monday to review agency proposals for meeting a 5% reduction target in general fund and lottery accounts, roughly $276,600,000, and to hear the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis' October criminal-justice caseload forecast. Agency leaders from the judicial branch, corrections, youth services, the state police, public defense, the Department of Justice and the Criminal Justice Commission warned that the recommended cuts would have substantial operational and downstream consequences.

Michael Kennedy of the Office of Economic Analysis summarized the October forecast, saying the update is largely in line with April baselines but flagged one notable exception: probation caseloads are slightly higher than previously projected after melding the projected impact of House Bill 4,002 with attorney-availability assumptions. "Rates of offending, crime rates, juvenile offending rates have...are at pre pandemic levels," Kennedy said, noting the forecast remains broadly similar to prior estimates.

The judicial branch urged caution about across-the-board reductions. State Court Administrator Nancy Cozine told the committee that most of the Judicial Department's general-fund operations are personal services and that judicial compensation — cited at $139,500,000 in testimony — is constitutionally protected and cannot be cut. She said that a 2.5% or 5% target effectively translates into…