The Town of Atherton’s finance committee received an updated review of the town’s FY25‑26 property tax roll and an accompanying revenue forecast on a presentation by consultant Paula Kona of HDL Company.

Kona told the committee that property taxes are a lagging indicator: assessor adjustments occur January–June, auditor processing follows in July–August and bills are printed and mailed in September–October. "Bills are due in November 2025. They become delinquent on December 10," she said, emphasizing the calendar that drives when revenue actually reaches the Town.

The consultant presented the Town’s assessed values and the distinction between gross assessed value and net taxable value; she reported the packet's aggregate figures showing roughly $17.9 billion in gross assessed value and noted about $450 million of value classified as exempt or otherwise non‑taxable. Kona estimated the Town’s FY25‑26 general fund revenue attributable to property tax to be about $14.51 million (packet figure).

Kona cautioned against assuming long‑term averages will materialize in the next budget year. Sales and new construction — the two variables that most often move the roll above CPI adjustments — lagged 2024. Through August, the presentation showed 36 sales year‑to‑date compared with 74 at the same point in 2024. Kona said a single closing of a very high‑value property can materially change percentage growth, but those events are unpredictable.

The presentation highlighted a number of large deviations on the roll tied to sales above $10 million and new construction still under review; Kona offered to provide parcel‑level values to staff for follow‑up. She also reviewed legacy use‑code changes that moved parcels into a vacant/improved classification this year, noting 31 parcels were reclassified from residential to vacant uses in the current roll and that classification shifts affect near‑term comparability with prior years.

On policy guidance, Kona said she uses conservative assumptions for the one‑year forecast and blends historical averages for the five‑year outlook. She told the committee she will deliver a finalized forecasting tool to staff in mid‑March and that council would see the formal budget projections later in the spring, with council consideration expected in May or June.

Council members asked whether the town should budget to a conservative "floor" or rely on upside from continuing construction. Members and staff agreed that the one‑year projection should be conservative and that the five‑year forecast will be retooled annually as more sales and construction are recorded.

The committee did not take formal action on budget assumptions at the meeting; the presentation was informational and staff will incorporate the numbers and assumptions into the Town’s budget process for council review.