The Lakeland School District’s long-range planning committee heard on Tuesday that current enrollment is higher than the district projected but funding remains vulnerable because state support is tied to daily attendance. Superintendent Rusty Taylor told the committee the district’s headcount “was significantly better than our projections,” and Finance Chief Jessica Rittenham said attendance shortfalls cost the district substantial revenue.

Rittenham told the committee the district’s current enrollment stands at about 4,630 students, compared with roughly 4,615 at the same point last year. The committee heard that the unexpected growth is concentrated in middle-school grades — including an unusually large sixth-grade cohort — while enrollment at the elementary level has been flat or declining in some areas.

Committee members and staff warned that enrollment alone does not determine state funding. Rittenham said the district lost about $2,300,000 last year because students were not in seats, and described that shortfalls translated into about $16,000 in lost funding per school day when attendance dipped.

Staff explained forecasting has been difficult: standard 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year models failed to predict the current shifts, and new housing can unpredictably change where students live. To address attendance, the district plans outreach and information campaigns (newsletters, ClassDojo and social posts) and school-level incentives such as house systems and event days to encourage daily attendance.

The long-range planning committee directed subcommittees to collect more granular data for the board, including longitudinal attendance and enrollment charts, and to return recommendations at the committee’s next meeting. The superintendent noted the board will make any final determinations and asked committee members to prepare data for a Jan. 15 follow-up meeting.