John Fisher of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection presented the agency’s 2024 solid-waste data to the Solid Waste Advisory Committee on Nov. 18, saying the statewide disposal picture is “relatively flat” year to year but that the details show significant shifts. Total disposal rose modestly — about 60,000 tons — while municipal solid waste (MSW) fell by roughly 140,000 tons and non‑MSW (largely construction and demolition debris) increased by about 200,000 tons, Fisher said. He described those opposing movements as the driver of a notable net export increase.

Fisher told the committee that net exports — the amount of Massachusetts‑generated waste disposed of in other states — increased by roughly 70,000 tons from 2023 to 2024 and that the net export figure overall is “nearly 2,800,000 tons.” He emphasized that MassDEP does not direct where private facilities send waste, but that market forces and available in‑state disposal capacity determine how material travels for disposal.

The presentation extended to historical data back to the 2018 master‑plan baseline. Fisher noted total disposal is about 500,000 tons higher than 2018 — roughly a 10% increase — while Massachusetts’ gross domestic product grew about 40% over the same period. He said non‑MSW has grown by about 50% since 2018 and is tracking more closely with GDP trends than MSW.

Fisher also described in‑state capacity projections. Using adjusted capacity estimates for permitted landfill and combustion facilities, MassDEP’s working estimate of total potential in‑state disposal capacity is roughly 3.5 million tons per year through 2030, but closures or operational changes could reduce that amount. He presented two scenarios projecting net exports through 2030: one assuming disposal stays flat and another that assumes linear reductions sufficient to meet the master‑plan disposal‑reduction goal. The agency warned that meeting the plan’s 2030 reduction target would require annual decreases substantially different from recent trends.

Data caveats and QAQC: Fisher said MassDEP will double‑check combustion-ash and metal‑recovery figures raised during the meeting (including submitted facility reports) before posting a final PDF and the presentation to the agency website.

The meeting recording and the slide deck will be posted on the MassDEP SWAC web page and YouTube channel.