Patrick Bollin, CEO and general manager of the Michigan Public Power Agency, told the Petoskey City Council on Dec. 1 that the joint-action utility is seeing unprecedented uncertainty in capacity forecasts and rising costs for renewable projects.

Bollin said MPPA has committed about $1.3–$1.4 billion in renewable projects over the past six years, but that since 2021 supply-chain pressures, tariffs and higher equipment costs have made new projects more expensive. He warned that regional futures show scenarios that range from a multi‑gigawatt deficit to sizable excess capacity, and that the city should plan now because building new capacity can take three to five years.

"We're short of the historical reliability criterion in some scenarios," Bollin said, describing a planning metric that balances expected outages with supply. He added that by 2026 the city should have between 85% and 100% of its wholesale needs price‑certain so it can develop retail rates.

Bollin directly addressed a Petoskey landfill solar project that had been seeking USDA financing. He said the developer’s USDA financing terms appear to be unworkable under the current federal program and that without USDA support the project could still be built but at materially higher cost. "Without the USDA financing, the project still can get built. It's just gonna be more expensive," he said, and indicated a decision was likely by the end of the year or early January.

Council members probed several topics in a lengthy question‑and‑answer period. Council member Shields said he has felt the city’s partnership with MPPA sometimes constrained local options; Bollin replied that MPPA is a project‑based joint action agency and that member communities retain the ability to pursue their own projects when it makes economic sense. "There's no restrictions in our bylaws that says you have to buy through MPPA," Bollin said.

On the technical side, Bollin discussed resource adequacy and the changing accreditation of intermittent generation, saying that renewables today do not receive the same capacity credit they once did. He emphasized batteries as a near‑term option that can provide both decarbonization and capacity value. He also estimated typical land requirements for solar at roughly 10 acres per megawatt as a planning metric and described transmission costs and interconnection delays as rising drivers of delivered power cost.

Council members pressed on feasibility of policy goals. Bollin noted Petoskey is at roughly 33% renewables today and that hitting a 50% renewable business objective by 2030 will be more difficult because of both technical accreditation changes and higher up‑front project prices; the city might need smaller, staged projects or renewable energy credits to bridge the gap.

Bollin closed by offering MPPA’s assistance searching for project partners and said MPPA is upgrading its portfolio‑management tools to better analyze intermittent and battery resources in 2026. "We would absolutely support that, and we would assist you in that regard," he said of helping the city find partners for its landfill site.

Next steps the council identified included staff follow‑up with MPPA on project options, cost estimates and a closer look at the landfill project financing alternatives.