Dunedin City staff and consultant Raftelis presented a rate sufficiency and efficiency study to the City Commission on Dec. 2 that recommended a two‑year phased rate plan to restore the solid waste enterprise fund to fiscal sustainability.

Terry Bovary of Raftelis said the study modeled a 10‑year financial projection (with emphasis on the near‑term five years) and showed that inflation since the city’s 2020 rate study, higher disposal costs and rising vehicle prices created a cash‑flow shortfall. The analysis reflected recent operational changes — notably a commission‑directed elimination of service to unincorporated areas — and incorporated efficiency savings identified by an internal study.

"If we don't collect any more revenue, we could operate for another 55 days," Bovary said in describing reserve targets and the rationale for phasing increases more aggressively in the near term. The Raftelis proposal would raise the typical monthly residential bill from roughly $24 to about $34 through a front‑loaded two‑year plan, with effective dates targeted for April 1, 2026 and April 1, 2027, then move to inflationary indexing thereafter (staff recommended a solid‑waste CPI subcomponent).

Staff and consultants said eliminating outside‑city collection produces routing and density efficiencies because inside‑city accounts require stops at more contiguous addresses. City Deputy Manager Jorge Guentes said the modeling showed the city was effectively subsidizing service to many outside‑city customers and that eliminating those routes improves net costs for city residents. Raftelis quantified long‑term operating reductions — presented as model output in the briefing — and showed capital lease/debt service needs for an accelerated vehicle replacement cycle.

Commissioners raised concerns about the near‑term impact on ratepayers and asked whether the city had explored raising outside‑city charges instead of eliminating service. Consultants cautioned that higher outside‑city fees could prompt households to switch to private haulers, which would further raise unit costs. Commissioners also discussed vehicle replacement timing, lease versus cash purchase tradeoffs, and whether to extend debt terms to match vehicle life cycles.

After debate, Mayor summarized a 3‑to‑2 consensus to direct staff to proceed with drafting ordinance language and public‑hearing materials for the two‑year rate plan, return with affordability options (such as targeted discounts) and provide any additional efficiency opportunities the commission requests.

Decision and next steps: staff will draft rate ordinance language, present required public hearings, and return with refined affordability measures and any further efficiency material requested by commissioners.