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Santa Barbara staff report lower baseline water demand; six scenarios to shape 2025 demand envelope
Summary
City staff told the Water Commission that updated baseline water demands are substantially lower than the 2020 projection, citing slower population growth and weaker drought rebound; six scenarios (including RHNA-driven growth and 'demand creep') will form a demand envelope to guide the 2025 Urban Water Management Plan.
Jasmine Showers, the city’s water resources analyst, told the Water Commission on Tuesday that the city’s updated 2025 baseline water demands are “much lower than our last baseline demand projection,” a change staff attributes to lower population projections and the absence of an expected drought rebound.
The reassessment, prepared with Water Systems Consulting and Madhouse Water Management (MWM), used 2021–2024 customer water use, 2020 census data, SBCCAG growth rates, California Employment Department figures, the city’s 2035 housing element and the city’s conservation measures. Showers said the baseline projections include…
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