Demographer warns of multi-year enrollment decline; recommends boundary review
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Summary
A regional demographer told the Durango School District No. 9-R board the district lost roughly 200 students in preliminary counts, could lose another ~400 over eight years, and suggested phased boundary adjustments and monitoring of housing trends and online program competition.
Shannon Gamm, introduced as a regional demographer, told the Durango School District No. 9-R board that the district's enrollment has declined and is following a broader Western Slope pattern of smaller birth cohorts and competition from statewide online programs.
"We declined this year almost by 200 students," Gamm said, later noting preliminary calculations showing a loss of about 206 students. She said demographic forces'including smaller birth cohorts and the growth of online charter programs such as Global Academy and Gold Academy'are factors in the decline.
Why it matters: Enrollment trends determine state funding, facility planning and potential boundary adjustments. Gamm projected significant growth in the Florida Mesa attendance area (an estimated 160 to 180 new students) and recommended the board consider phased boundary changes in conjunction with new school openings to preserve neighborhood relationships and minimize disruption.
Gamm also flagged that some enrollment shifts reflect accounting changes: when a locally sponsored charter moved under the Colorado Charter School Institute (CSI), students drawn statewide were removed from the district's accounting. She suggested the board consider several policy tools, including phased transfers, alternate enrollment windows and aligning boundary changes to construction timelines.
Board questions and follow-up: Directors asked about the drivers of the decline and whether programmatic changes were responsible; Gamm pointed to both structural demographic shifts and programmatic changes (for example, shared services no longer counted in district totals). Staff said audited counts will be submitted to the Colorado Department of Education in January and the presenter offered to provide memos with boundary-adjustment options.
What happens next: Gamm said the Department of Education will publish final counts in January; board members were encouraged to review memos circulated by the presenter and consider enrollment-balancing options at a future meeting.