Bentonville School District sees roughly 4,000 more students over next decade, RSP warns of elementary/secondary imbalances

At the Oct. 9 Bentonville School District board work session, consultant Jenna Wallace of RSP & Associates presented an enrollment and demographics report projecting "over 4,000 students over these next 10 years," with the largest increases at the elementary level, Wallace said.

Wallace told the board the forecast anticipates about 1,500 additional elementary students, roughly 500–600 at middle/junior high and more than 300 at the high‑school level. "When we have larger twelfth grade classes and smaller kindergarten classes, you're reliant on cohort change to offset that balance," she said, explaining how cohort dynamics and market share of kindergarten births affect long‑term enrollment.

The analysis ties live‑birth trends to future kindergarten cohorts and uses roughly 500 planning areas to model neighborhood yields. Wallace said the district has a high market share of the 5–18 population (about 75%) and that open enrollment adds roughly 650 students—about 2–3% of total enrollment. She highlighted intra‑district movement as well: 756 elementary students attended schools outside their residence boundary in the most recent two‑year snapshot.

Maps in the report show student density clustered near Willowbrook Elementary and shifting growth toward Vaughn and Gamble attendance areas; downtown and Bella Vista show lower student density. RSP also presented yield‑rate analysis (students per 100 housing units) and said single‑family yields have fallen from about 42 to 37 students per 100 units, while multifamily yields are lower.

Wallace cautioned that local infrastructure and development changes affect projections. She identified temporary sewer and lift‑station limits in parts of Bentonville and Centerton that are stalling some building permits. "That is subject to change," she said, adding the model holds back student yields in hatched areas that the city labeled stalled.

Wallace said the team's projections matched last year’s projections at about 99.7% accuracy and that the district should exceed 20,000 students next year, reach about 22,300 students in the 2030–31 range and surpass 24,000 by 2035 under current assumptions.

Board members asked for further breakdowns by grade span and whether the model captures job growth and housing price effects; Wallace said RSP uses city planning data, historic open‑enrollment averages and housing inventories but that targeted survey work (for why families choose a market) was not part of this packet. "We could look into that," she said.

The presentation closed with Wallace recommending the board incorporate these projections into the district's 10‑year master planning and continue monitoring infrastructure and enrollment variables that could change the forecast.