Demographic review: Bastrop ISD planning for growth as subdivisions and data-center projects add housing
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Summary
A district demographer reported active subdivisions, an inventory of thousands of lots and several developments bringing new housing; the presentation emphasized interest-rate sensitivity and forecast scenarios for long-term enrollment growth.
Zona Education consultant Hudson Huff presented the district's fall 2025 demographic and facilities update, describing local housing activity, recent home closings, and the yield of students per housing unit that informs school planning. Huff identified active construction, an EdgeConnex data-center project near Wolf Lane (a 578,000-square-foot facility under construction) and 31 active subdivisions across the district with roughly 240 homes currently under construction and about 5,400 lots developed and available. "So, overall, you'll see across the district, 31 active subdivisions," Huff said, noting major activity in Camino Real, Colony Oaks and Bluebonnet zones.
Huff and board members discussed the sensitivity of projections to interest rates and builder starts; he provided mid-range enrollment projections used for facility planning and a conservative low side for budget purposes. The consultant noted seasonal and market effects, and highlighted areas with high yield (e.g., Los Condesa with a 0.96 student-per-home yield) and large master-planned phases (Colony).
Trustees asked about timeline assumptions and whether near-term kindergarten numbers indicated a structural change. Huff said kindergarten ratios had declined slightly from 1.377 to 1.251 year over year and that the district would continue to monitor birth rates and mobility before changing long-term assumptions. The presentation will inform capacity planning, feeder boundary discussions and future capital considerations as the district balances projection scenarios against interest-rate-driven housing starts.