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Kirkwood board hears five-year enrollment projection, staff warns elementary declines likely
Summary
District staff presented a five-year enrollment projection showing an anticipated loss of roughly 352 resident students by 2030–31 (about a 6.6% decline), concentrated at the elementary level; board members discussed housing, transfers and budget implications.
On Nov. 17, 2025, Kirkwood School District staff presented the board with a five-year enrollment projection based on live birth data, cohort-survival rates and a capture-rate method used each year to inform staffing and long-term planning.
The presenter said the district’s resident enrollment was reported in the presentation as "55 90" and that projections show a decline of about 352 resident students by the 2030–31 school year — roughly 70 students per year on average and about a 6.6% drop from current resident counts. The presentation attributed most of the projected decline to lower birth cohorts that move through the…
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