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District projects enrollment essentially flat; five-year outlook shows modest decline
Summary
Administrators presented enrollment projections using a cohort survival method and Pennsylvania Department of Health birth statistics; the Oct. 1 count was 4,896 students and five-year projections show a projected decline of about 4.85%, though short-term counts are expected to remain near 4,900.
District staff presented enrollment projections that will inform next year’s budget. Using a cohort survival model and birth data from the Pennsylvania Department of Health, the presenter said the district’s Oct. 1 count was 4,896 students (including the C3 program) and projected next-year enrollment is a little above 4,900. The five-year projection indicates a modest decline (approximately 4.85%).
Presenters explained the model incorporates grade-to-grade survival rates, historical October 1 counts, and municipality-level birth statistics. They noted that development type matters — retirement communities and some housing development patterns produce few school-age children — and that unexpected events (for example, school closures elsewhere or relocations) can change trends.
The board discussed differences with Pennsylvania Department of Education projections and were told PDE’s model does not incorporate birth rates; the district’s approach includes birth-rate inputs to refine elementary-school forecasts. No decisions were required at the work session; enrollment figures will be used in upcoming budget planning.
