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Monticello projects modest enrollment decline; district says facilities capacity sufficient
Summary
District staff reported a five-year decline of 158 students (about 3.85%), discussed open-enrollment flows and projection methods, and said building capacity is adequate for projected enrollment over the next five years.
District staff presented enrollment projections on Dec. 1 showing a modest downward trend driven by cohort sizes and open-enrollment flows. Tina Burkholder reviewed multiple projection methods, historical trends and recent drivers such as building permits and birth rates.
Burkholder said the district has seen a five-year decline of 158 students, a drop of about 3.85%, and that the district overestimated this year's incoming students by 54. She described methods used to generate projections, including October 1 MARS counts, county birth rates and multi-year weighted averages, and explained that kindergarten class sizes are particularly volatile.
She reviewed open-enrollment patterns by neighboring districts, noting net gains from Big Lake and losses to St. Michael-Albertville, and pointed to single-family building-permit activity (48 permits in 2024 and 35 year-to-date) as an encouraging sign for future growth. Burkholder said the district will monitor kindergarten cohorts and adjust staffing as needed: "Since we are on a decline with enrollment, we do have enough building capacity to hold our enrollment in the next 5 years."
Board members asked whether the district surveys families who choose to come to Monticello; the board chair confirmed exit and entry questionnaires are used to track reasons families leave or choose the district.
