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Joint Budget Committee: September forecast revises revenue outlook; TABOR and tax‑credit triggers complicate FY26 planning
Summary
Legislative Council Staff told lawmakers the September forecast now expects the state to be below the TABOR cap in FY26, with special‑session revenue changes and federal tax law (HR 1/OBA) shifting near‑term revenue and tax‑credit availability.
Legislative Council Staff told the Joint Budget Committee that recent policy and data changes have materially altered Colorado’s revenue outlook and raised stakes for near‑term budget choices.
Greg Sobetsky, chief economist for Legislative Council Staff, said the September forecast revises the FY25–26 picture: LCS now expects a TABOR surplus for FY24–25 of roughly $296 million but projects the state will fall below the TABOR cap in FY25–26 by about $215–$307 million depending on assumptions and later forecast updates.
Special‑session legislation accounts for a large part of the upward revision to FY25–26 collections; Sobetsky said the committee’s actions produced an estimated $347 million upward revision to the FY25–26 general‑fund forecast, driven largely by policy enacted during the special session. At the same time, federal tax…
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