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Legislative fiscal office projects rising prison population, warns state will need more capacity
Summary
Legislative Fiscal Division analysts showed a 20‑year tool that projects Montana’s offender population will grow, with jail holds rising and female offenders increasing faster than male ones; analysts said House Bill 5’s 512‑bed proposal will address only part of projected mid‑term need.
Walker Hopkins of the Legislative Fiscal Division told the House Judiciary Committee that the MARA (modernization and risk analysis) tool projects long‑term corrections trends and highlights gaps in Montana’s criminal‑justice data. Hopkins said Senate Bill 11 (2023) aims to build a data warehouse to join law‑enforcement, court, corrections and public‑health datasets so policymakers can analyze flows through the system.
Hopkins said the Legislative Fiscal Division’s model uses quarterly Department of Corrections facility reports, reported crime and convicted‑offense counts and an exponential‑smoothing time‑series method that weights recent years more heavily. "Senate bill 11 passed by the 2023…
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