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NVTA committee outlines four 'what‑if' scenarios to test long‑range transaction robustness
Summary
Staff presented four scenario types — pandemic/telework land‑use changes, technology/automated/shared vehicles, pricing/incentives, and climate‑risk (or a combination) — to test how transaction‑rated projects perform across plausible futures; members stressed equity and coordination with TPB/COG climate work.
At the Nov. 29 Planning and Programming Committee meeting, staff presented four scenario definitions intended to test uncertainty in the NVTA transaction evaluation and long‑range planning.
Staff (Dalia and others) framed the scenarios as "what‑if" sensitivity tests rather than predictions. Scenario 1 explores whether pandemic‑era changes (wider telework, changed retail patterns, altered car ownership and household locations) persist to 2045 and how that would affect transit willingness and land‑use forecasts. "What if some of the pandemic trends that we've seen particularly around transportation become a new…
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