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Demographer: Tempe Union faces sustained enrollment decline; retention and ESAs cited as pivotal
Summary
At a district meeting, the demographer warned Tempe Union High School District could lose hundreds to thousands of students over the next decade as birth rates, housing turnover and rising use of Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs) reduce the pool of school‑age residents. Board members pressed for retention strategies.
Mr. Brammer, the district demographer, told the Tempe Union High School District governing board that long‑term demographic trends and recent programmatic changes are combining to reduce district enrollment.
“In the last two years alone, we've lost close to a thousand students,” Mr. Brammer told the board during a study session, describing a six‑year period of declining enrollment and a peak of roughly 14,000 students in 2013–14. He attributed declines to an aging local population, lower birth rates, and increased school choice—including a sharp statewide increase in students using Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs).
Mr. Brammer cited ESA participation as a newly significant factor: “The previous year was about 36,000. This year is about 66,000. The…
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