Boerne ISD projects modest enrollment growth but models show a $4.3M budget gap under current assumptions

Boerne ISD trustees heard enrollment projections and early budget models at the first 2025–26 budget workshop, where staff warned the district faces a mid‑single‑million‑dollar shortfall under current assumptions.

"This will be said several times during the workshop, but we're not proposing any kind of budget at this point in time," Mr. Scott told trustees as he opened the session and laid out modeling assumptions for discussion. Staff used the PASA demographer's "mini update" and conservative revenue assumptions to build initial scenarios.

The district's current enrollment was described at about 11,100 students (October snapshot). PASA presented three scenarios: a reduced projection of about 11,237 students, a moderate projection of about 11,397 and an accelerated scenario near 11,695. PASA noted continuing declines in kindergarten cohorts and a wave of larger classes moving into middle and high school, which shifts near‑term staffing needs toward secondary campuses.

Mr. Scott said the district's baseline model uses the reduced enrollment scenario, an anticipated average daily attendance (ADA) at 94% of enrollment and conservative investment income. Under those assumptions the general fund model shows approximately $104 million in projected revenues against roughly $108 million in expenditures — an opening modeled shortfall of about $4.3 million.

The district reported a recent comptroller property‑value study release and a change in "frozen values" that, when applied to the district's calculations, generated an estimated $2.2 million of additional state funding for the current year. Mr. Scott cautioned that districts adopt budgets before final certified values and that appeals and later adjustments can still change state funding outcomes.

Staff broke out expenditures and one‑time items that will not recur, including a December retention bonus and a $350,000 one‑time allocation for the new Viola Wilson Elementary's startup year. Payroll dominates the general fund: Mr. Scott said roughly $84 million of a $108 million budget is personnel costs.

Trustees and staff noted multiple revenue uncertainties — changes in federal/SHARS reimbursement rules, the state's frozen‑value calculations, and potential legislative changes such as teacher‑pay proposals and voucher legislation — any of which could materially alter the district's final budget. Mr. Scott said staff will present several budget models at subsequent workshops (staffing and compensation in March, program initiatives in April, and updated models in May) before a planned June adoption.

The workshop closed with trustees confirming a $27 million fund balance (about three and a half months of reserves) and an expectation to refine models as new data, legislative action and certified values arrive.