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Oregon forecast trims revenues; LRO estimates HR 1 will cut current‑biennium receipts by $888 million
Summary
The Office of Economic Analysis and Legislative Revenue Office told the joint House and Senate revenue committees the September forecast lowers projected general‑fund receipts by $621 million versus May, driven largely by federal tax changes (HR 1) that LRO estimates reduce current‑biennium revenue by about $888 million.
The joint House and Senate revenue committees heard on Aug. 27 that Oregon —aces weaker near‑term revenue prospects after the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) and the Legislative Revenue Office (LRO) updated the September economic and revenue forecast.
"We have not specifically incorporated" high‑profile one‑off asset sales into the forecast, OEA said, but LRO and OEA said the headline change to the state revenue outlook stems from federal tax legislation known in the briefing as HR 1 and from recent state data revisions. Michael Kennedy of the Legislative Revenue Office said the forecast revision lowers projected revenues by $621 million since May and reduces the projected ending general‑fund balance for the current biennium by $845 million to a deficit of about $372.7 million.
Why it matters: LRO's current scoring attributes the largest single effect to HR 1, which it estimates reduces current‑biennium revenue by…
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