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LRO briefs committee on Oregon reserve funds and the upcoming kicker certification
Summary
LRO staff summarized Oregon’s two reserve funds—the constitutionally created Education Stability Fund and the statutory Rainy Day Fund—explained statutory withdrawal triggers, reported roughly $3.0 billion in combined reserves at the start of the biennium, and reminded members of the chief economist’s kicker certification timetable and the roughly $1.4 billion estimate from the most recent forecast.
Legislative Revenue Office staff told the House Committee on Revenue that Oregon has two primary reserve vehicles: the constitutionally established Education Stability Fund and the statutory Rainy Day Fund. LRO staff said the combined reserves at the start of the biennium were roughly $3.0 billion.
LRO described statutory triggers for accessing reserves: an employment trigger (two consecutive quarters of declining employment within a 12-month rolling window) and a revenue trigger (an upcoming revenue forecast that is 2% below the close-of-session forecast). LRO staff noted the employment trigger is rolling and can lapse if employment recovers, while a revenue-trigger status remains once it is met.
Staff said the chief economist must certify a kicker amount and that the most recent forecast showed a kicker estimate of about $1.4 billion; the certification timetable was noted as requiring action around Nov. 1 to inform next spring’s tax filings. LRO cautioned that statutory and administrative details matter (for example, how quickly DOR can change forms or implement changed law) and that late-year policy changes complicate tax-year applicability.
