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Report to council: Virginia Beach population flat, housing affordability gap widens
Summary
Hampton Roads Alliance analyst Michael Evans told council the city’s population is largely stable (~453,000), net domestic outflows continue, the city is aging and housing supply is skewed to higher‑end units—creating an affordability gap between median sale price (~$418,362) and typical buyer incomes.
Michael Evans, director of business intelligence at the Hampton Roads Alliance, presented a data‑driven overview of Virginia Beach’s population, migration, demographic composition, income and housing trends.
Evans said Virginia Beach’s population is just under 453,000 and has remained relatively flat in recent years, with projection uncertainty through 2030. He noted that in 2022 the region lost population (-2,700) and Virginia Beach recorded a domestic net loss of about 3,700 people, while international migration (foreign‑born population up more than 7% over the past decade) has offset some domestic outflow. Evans also highlighted the city’s large veteran population (about 53,000) and cautioned about projected declines in veteran cohorts by 2040.
On age structure, Evans said the share of prime working‑age residents (25–54) has edged down (from a peak of ~194,000 to ~189,000), while the share of residents aged 65+ has risen. He tied that trend to fiscal pressures: flat enrollment in schools but rising special‑needs and English‑learner costs, and slower natural growth of the tax base.
Evans presented income measures showing a median household income around $91,000 and per‑capita roughly $47,000, but he emphasized that a sizable share of households (about 30%) fall into the United Way ALICE (asset‑limited, income‑constrained, employed) category—households that earn above the federal poverty line but below a local survival budget. He said an ALICE family of four in Virginia Beach needs about $92,000 to meet basic costs—near the city median—leaving many households financially stretched.
Housing data in the presentation showed a median sale price around $418,362 (late July 2025 figures cited in the presentation), with nearly half of new construction assessed above $750,000 and fewer than 20% of new homes assessed below $350,000. Evans said this “missing middle” supply dynamic, together with a Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) price floor in the rental market tied to the city’s military population, pushes affordability challenges for workers (teachers, nurses, mid‑career professionals).
Evans recommended a policy focus on increasing middle‑market for‑sale housing, regional workforce and housing strategies to retain military families and young professionals, and aligning fiscal planning to changing service demands from an aging population. Council members responded with questions about rental vs. ownership dynamics, supply estimates and regional migration pressures.
