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CEC scenarios show large potential gas demand declines; commission and utilities flag rate and reliability tradeoffs
Summary
CEC staff presented demand‑reduction scenarios and a total‑customer rate tool showing wide possible rate outcomes if revenue requirements grow while demand falls. Utilities and advocates debated how forecasts should inform local planning, reliability standards and cost-recovery rules.
San Francisco — At the CPUC workshop, California Energy Commission analysts presented updated demand scenarios and a rate‑impact modeling tool intended to help policymakers and utilities understand how electrification pathways could affect natural‑gas rates and system planning.
Nicholas Janish of the CEC summarized the agency’s three gas demand products (the IPR/IGRA annual work, long‑term scenarios to 2050, and a seasonal peak‑day forecast for reliability). He described the Additional Achievable Fuel Substitution (AAFS) modeling framework used to aggregate program impacts, codes-and-standards, and potential zero‑emission appliance adoption. Janish said the scenarios diverge most…
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