Facility master plan shows pockets of growth amid district-wide aging and shifting enrollment

Consultants from Hollis & Miller Architects and Demographic Analytics Advisors presented a facility master plan and 10-year enrollment forecast to the Francis Howell R-III Board on Sept. 18, outlining building-condition assessments, capacity methodology and demographic projections.

Megan Barnes of Hollis & Miller said the master-plan process produced a five-step approach that included a district-wide survey, building walkthroughs and a facility score for each school. "We walked literally every inch of your guys' buildings," Barnes said, and the team compiled photos and a short report for each facility.

Chris, a presenter from Demographic Analytics Advisors, explained the enrollment forecast methodology, which uses a modified grade-progression model augmented by housing permit analysis and conservative build-out assumptions (75% of approved housing and 25% of proposed housing over the period). He summarized that the district will experience pockets of growth in some attendance zones while the overall district population and student age profile continue to shift; his team's baseline scenario showed a slight growth in the first five years and approximately a 1% decline after ten years.

The consultants reported that district-wide K–12 utilization is about 90% and that elementary schools collectively were about 98% utilized under the current capacity calculations, a level that can limit flexibility. They identified a small set of buildings as underutilized, several as nearing capacity and a few elementary schools that warrant monitoring or options for additions, boundary adjustments or program shifts.

Next steps include a planning-priority survey to be released to stakeholders, a public workshop planned for November, and follow-up options analysis. The board was asked to weigh priorities such as deferred maintenance, safety/security and educational program needs as the planning process advances.