PUC: Snowpack at near-record lows; outreach launched and mandatory rationing possible

The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission was warned on April 18 that the city’s water system is entering one of its driest years on record and staff said it will launch public outreach immediately to seek voluntary conservation while preparing a mandatory plan if needed.

Margaret Hannaford, general manager of Hetch Hetchy Water and Power, said the system is experiencing “the fourth driest year of record on the Hetch Hetchy since 1919,” and that the city faces roughly a 200,000-acre-foot shortfall in carryover storage plus an estimated 60,000-acre-foot drawdown tied to Division of Safety of Dams (DSOD) constraints at Calaveras Reservoir. She told commissioners the city expects to be at a little over 1,100,000 acre-feet in total storage on July 1 under current conditions.

The commission directed staff to begin a public-outreach campaign that will present the “top 10” conservation actions customers can take and to report back with monthly updates (May 7, June 7 and July 7 were cited as target update dates). Tony Irons, deputy general manager, said staff is not seeking to invoke an emergency shortage declaration under section 350 of the state water code immediately; instead staff recommended outreach first and a mid‑June reassessment to determine whether mandatory rationing triggers will be necessary.

Commissioners pressed staff for an economic-impact assessment focused on businesses and asked staff to present a draft of a mandatory rationing plan in case voluntary measures fall short. Staff said a draft economic-impact statement would be available for the next commission meeting and that, if voluntary savings do not materialize by early June, they would prepare the necessary notices and a mandatory plan to be implemented later in the summer.

The discussion also covered longer-term capacity questions after commissioners asked how the agency should plan if dry conditions persist for multiple years. Hannaford and staff said operational modeling uses historical sequences (for example the 1987–1992 drought sequence) and that a 10% system savings (about 30,000 acre‑feet) would modestly reduce the probability of hitting high-level rationing the following year. Commissioners asked staff to present multiple modeling scenarios (short-term and multi-year sequences) at upcoming briefings.

The commission did not take formal emergency action at the meeting; it approved staff’s plan to start outreach immediately, produce the economic-impact draft and return with further analyses and a possible mandatory plan if the voluntary campaign is insufficient.