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SFPUC presentation: climate model projects earlier snowmelt and shifts in reservoir inflow timing
Summary
Hetch Hetchy staff presented modeling that adds +3°C temperature to historical runs and shows a shift toward earlier runoff and reduced late-spring snowmelt, with implications for summer water supply and hydroelectric generation; commissioners asked for worst-case scenario modeling and local-capture options.
Bruce McGurk, operations manager for Hetch Hetchy Water and Power, told the commission the utility has begun basin-specific climate analyses looking ahead to 2025 and beyond. Using a conservative temperature scenario (adding roughly 3°C to historical minimum and maximum values for a scenario run), McGurk said modeled results show a rising snow line and an earlier timing of inflows that shifts the median peak inflow at Hetch Hetchy from June to May in the adjusted…
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