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Colfax: reproductive number may be above 1; reopening plans paused
Summary
San Francisco's public-health director told commissioners the city's reproductive number is estimated at about 1.25, hospital indicators are in the red and the previously planned reopening remains paused; officials urged mask-wearing and social-distancing to avert projected rises in hospitalizations and deaths.
Director Colfax presented the Health Commission with San Francisco's latest COVID-19 indicators on July 7, warning that several measures of transmission and hospital pressure had moved into cautionary zones.
Colfax reported that the city has diagnosed more than 4,000 COVID-19 cases and recorded 50 deaths to date. "Our positivity rate is climbing," Colfax said, noting the 7-day testing and percent-positive trend and uneven reporting caused in part by longer laboratory turnarounds.
The presentation included an estimated reproductive number (R) derived from modeling by Dr. Maya Peterson's group. "The best estimate is about 1.25," Colfax…
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