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Colfax: testing and hospital data improving but small rise in R could trigger big surge
Summary
Dr. Colfax told the Health Commission that testing has ramped up, hospitalizations are flat or falling and the reproductive rate estimate is ~0.94 — but models show that a modest rise to R=1.1 or 1.4 could produce substantial hospital surges, so reopening must be gradual and data‑driven.
Dr. Colfax, San Francisco's health director, delivered an extensive COVID‑19 preparedness and recovery update on May 19, reporting continued testing expansion, low citywide hospital occupancy by COVID patients and model‑based warnings about reopening.
"We are a remarkable 37 times lower than New York," Dr. Colfax said, pointing to San Francisco's lower death rate while cautioning that the city must remain vigilant. She said the department has reported 2,179 confirmed COVID‑19 cases and 36 deaths to date and has recorded nearly 46,000 total tests reported to…
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