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DPH CFO outlines five‑year forecast: near‑term revenue growth but caution on recession risk
Summary
DPH Chief Financial Officer Greg Wagner briefed the commission on the mayor's five‑year financial forecast: a projected $15.9 million deficit in year one, a one‑year revenue boost of roughly $200 million citywide, and planning guidance to prepare for a potential recession.
Greg Wagner, chief financial officer for the Department of Public Health, opened the department’s budget season with a briefing on the mayor’s five‑year forecast and the department’s planning priorities.
Wagner told commissioners that the forecast shows an immediate general fund deficit of $15.9 million in the first year, balanced by an unusually large revenue increase citywide in year one: “For 15,16, [there is] $200,000,000 of additional general fund revenue forecast compared to the current year,” he said. Wagner cautioned that the forecast does not assume a recession and urged prudence because a downturn could worsen the general fund by roughly a billion dollars over the out years in a typical scenario.
Wagner listed key budget priorities for DPH, including modernizing IT infrastructure, planning for electronic medical records and ICD‑10 implementation, and preparing for the opening of the new San Francisco General Hospital. He also noted an instruction from the mayor’s office: no general fund reduction target in year one but a 1% contingency reduction target in year two (about $6.2 million for DPH) for planning purposes.
Wagner said the department will present budget proposals at commission hearings in February, submit to the mayor’s office on February 23 and continue reporting until the mayor’s budget is introduced on June 1 and scheduled for board hearings in July.
