LAFCO staff: ranked-choice voting linked to slightly higher overvote rates but may increase participation in open-seat races

Jason Fried, LAFCO staff, presented a preliminary statistical review of San Francisco voting systems and asked commissioners to view the findings as work in progress. Fried said he compared data across four voting styles in the city and noted differences in data availability for older runoff elections.

Fried reported that "citywide RCV races actually have that, you know, point 26% of the vote actually is an error on average" and that plurality local races were closer to 0.09% overvote on the same basis. He cautioned that those percentages vary by race type and that school board and community college multi-candidate contests produced the highest error rates.

Commissioners and staff discussed whether a proposed 65% primary threshold (an option under consideration at the Board of Supervisors) would produce outcomes equivalent to a majority in November; Fried said historical comparisons show such a conversion rarely holds. Commissioner John Avalos and others urged caution about calling voters "disenfranchised," noting the data do not support broad claims of disenfranchisement.

Fried proposed follow-up work: deeper analysis against the supervisors' measure language, precinct-level error patterning, and consultation with subject-matter experts (Corey Cook and Department of Elections personnel were mentioned) to explore remedies such as ballot-style revisions, targeted voter education, or different voting equipment.

Public commenters said ballot style, number of choices and timing (September vs. June primaries) matter for turnout and error rates, and recommended focusing remedial efforts on plurality multi-candidate contests where invalid votes are highest.

Next steps: Fried will review the supervisors' measure and meet with co-sponsors, provide further neighborhood-level analysis and coordinate with election experts as requested by commissioners.