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Controller's economist: San Francisco suffered deeper job losses and slower recovery; recovery hinges on return of offices and hotels
Summary
Chief Economist Ted Egan told the Entertainment Commission the region lost roughly 175,000 jobs in April 2020 and that professional services have recovered while restaurant and entertainment jobs remain well below pre-pandemic levels; out-migration and loss of tourists are major drag factors.
Ted Egan, chief economist with the San Francisco Controller's office, presented data showing the Bay Area lost roughly 175,000 jobs in one month at the pandemic's onset; about half of those jobs had returned by December 2020. He said high-wage sectors like professional services largely recovered by year-end, while leisure, arts and restaurant employment remained substantially down.
Egan highlighted that restaurants lost about 70% of jobs in April and had recovered to about 60% of pre-pandemic staffing by December, leaving roughly 40% of those jobs still lost as of the latest data. He also reported substantial declines in hotel occupancy and downtown sales-tax receipts and raised migration estimates from post-office FOIA reporting showing tens of thousands more people moved out of San Francisco in 2020 compared with 2019.
On timing, Egan said recovery depends on the return of office workers, hotel guests and tourists; he offered a range of scenarios and estimated a potential return to pre-pandemic economic levels by 2024'25 in baseline optimistic scenarios but cautioned that a full re-occupancy of hotels and offices is critical.
Commissioners asked for the slides; Egan said the presentation would be posted in the meeting folder and that January data were forthcoming.
