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Building Inspection Commission hears CAPS seismic-safety plan; tables contract extension to Nov. 17
Summary
Applied Technology Council consultant Tom Tobin briefed the commission on the Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety (CAPS), outlining a four-step market-based retrofit strategy and large estimated losses for a major San Andreas event. The commission voted 4–1 to table a contract-extension request until Nov. 17 to allow further review.
Tom Tobin of the Applied Technology Council told the Building Inspection Commission that the Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety (CAPS) combines policy objectives, HAZUS loss modeling, post-earthquake fire modeling and socioeconomic analysis to produce recommended retrofit priorities for San Francisco.
"This isn't the worst that could occur, but it is certainly still a severe test," Tobin said when describing the working scenario: a magnitude-7.2 earthquake on the San Andreas. He said model runs show life-loss ranges that depend on time and scenario — roughly 70 fatalities in some smaller scenarios and "nearly a thousand" in a daytime 7.9 event — and estimated building-repair costs between $17 billion and $54 billion, with aggregate losses that could rise (including infrastructure) toward $70 billion.
Tobin described a four-step, market-based approach the…
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