Building Inspection Commission hears CAPS seismic-safety plan; tables contract extension to Nov. 17

Tom Tobin of the Applied Technology Council told the Building Inspection Commission that the Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety (CAPS) combines policy objectives, HAZUS loss modeling, post-earthquake fire modeling and socioeconomic analysis to produce recommended retrofit priorities for San Francisco.

"This isn't the worst that could occur, but it is certainly still a severe test," Tobin said when describing the working scenario: a magnitude-7.2 earthquake on the San Andreas. He said model runs show life-loss ranges that depend on time and scenario — roughly 70 fatalities in some smaller scenarios and "nearly a thousand" in a daytime 7.9 event — and estimated building-repair costs between $17 billion and $54 billion, with aggregate losses that could rise (including infrastructure) toward $70 billion.

Tobin described a four-step, market-based approach the CAPS team recommends: improve public information and standards so owners and tenants can evaluate risk; offer incentives and training; require seismic evaluation upon sale (to nudge retrofit activity into routine transactions); and, after several years of voluntary gains and evaluations, require retrofits upon sale and ultimately set a long-range retrofit deadline for targeted building classes. He identified pre-1980 nonductile concrete frames and multiunit "soft-story" wood-frame buildings (five or more units or three-plus stories) as high priorities for early action.

Commissioners pressed about scope and timing. Tobin said the CAPS technical reports are near completion: the task-2 loss study and task-3 repair guidelines will be finalized after fire-following estimates and review by the project engineering panel; task-4 (risk-reduction strategies) was about half finished at the time of his presentation. He outlined next scheduling milestones, including Advisory Committee reviews in November and an expected window to finish models and drafts in November–December.

Public commenters and some commissioners pressed practical concerns: how illegal units are counted, whether tenants or ground-floor small businesses would receive relocation support during retrofit work, and whether retrofit costs produce insurance benefits. Tobin said illegal units found in a building would be added to unit counts so thresholds capture them; he said CAPS would outline incentive approaches but would not itself recommend legalization policy. On insurance, Tobin noted low retail penetration (about 10% locally) and said existing insurance structures provide limited mitigation incentives unless state law or insurer practices change.

Action: commissioners debated a no-cost contract time extension for the CAPS vendor to align the contract termination with the deliverable schedule. After public comment and competing motions (a proposal to extend the contract to Dec. 31 and a competing motion to table action), the commission voted to table the extension until the November 17 regular meeting. The roll call shown on the record recorded President Murphy, Vice President Hetchanova, Commissioner Clinch and Commissioner Lee voting yes and Commissioner Marr voting no; the motion carried 4–1.

Next steps: staff and the CAPS project team will complete remaining technical steps (fire-following analysis and project engineering panel review) and return deliverables to the advisory committee before the November meeting, where the commission will revisit the contract-extension request and outstanding technical questions.