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Seismic‑safety update: draft risk report nearing public release; Tobin estimates widespread housing exposure
Summary
A consultant update on the community action plan for seismic safety said a 90% draft of "San Francisco's Earthquake Risk" will be released publicly in April; the consultant estimated up to 100,000 buildings could be damaged in a 7.2 event with tens of thousands becoming uninhabitable, underscoring the need for retrofit financing and planning.
Tom Tobin updated the commission on the Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety (CAPS), reporting progress across multiple tasks and previewing an April public release for a near‑final risk report.
Tobin said the CAPS team has completed work on soft‑story multifamily buildings and expects the 'San Francisco's Earthquake Risk' report to be delivered in near‑final form; a repair/retrofit guidelines draft is expected in about six weeks. He described a scenario analysis that estimates roughly 100,000 buildings could sustain some damage in a 7.2 quake and that about 25,000 buildings could be unoccupiable, with large housing losses concentrated in multi‑unit and older building types such as soft‑story, older concrete and unreinforced masonry.
Commissioners and public commenters focused on financing, insurance penetration and owner incentives. Panelists and commissioners discussed possible financing tools (tax instruments, low‑interest loans, bond measures) and emphasized outreach to building owners and insurers. Commissioner Walker noted active stakeholder working groups on mandatory soft‑story retrofit finance and engineering details.
