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SFPUC warns Bay‑Delta changes could force deep rationing; Tuolumne advocates press for higher river flows
Summary
SFPUC staff told the Planning Commission that San Francisco relies heavily on Tuolumne/Sierra supplies and that a Bay‑Delta Water Board plan amendment could require much deeper drought rationing, while Tuolumne River Trust representatives urged stronger flows to restore salmon habitat. The commission heard competing views on planning scenarios and local recycled‑water options.
San Francisco Public Utilities Commission planners told the Planning Commission on Dec. 12 that roughly 85% of the regional water supply originates in Sierra/Tuolumne reservoirs and that recent Bay‑Delta regulatory changes could sharply increase drought shortages for the city and wholesale customers. "We analyze three scenarios," SFPUC Assistant General Manager Steve Ritchie said, describing a status‑quo scenario, an outcome under voluntary agreements and a third case in which Bay‑Delta plan amendments take effect. He said the latter could require rationing of up to 40–50% in prolonged drought conditions under the agency's design drought model.
The briefing stressed process as well as risk: urban water management plans and project‑level water supply assessments must now consider multiple supply scenarios, nonpotable demand and a system‑wide level‑of‑service goal that aims to avoid more than 20% system rationing in the SFPUC's planning scenario. Ritchie also outlined longer‑term supply projects the agency is pursuing, from additional storage to purified water and recycled nonpotable supplies.
Representatives of the Tuolumne River Trust echoed the ecological urgency that produced the Bay‑Delta plan revisions. "The Bay‑Delta ecosystem is in a state of ecological crisis," Peter Dreckmeier said, urging higher unimpaired flows to restore salmon runs and other ecological values. He described the Bay‑Delta plan's February–June unimpaired flow target (a sliding scale of roughly 30%–50%) and argued that policy choices about flow versus non‑flow measures determine the severity of supply impacts for cities.
Public comment emphasized local opportunities and tradeoffs. Environmental and neighborhood speakers asked for more aggressive local recycled‑water and purified‑water projects, and community advocates urged planners to account for how rationing and supply decisions would affect urban green space, housing and local jobs. Other speakers noted that San Francisco has limited large‑scale nonpotable opportunities compared with other agencies and that purified potable reuse will be a statewide policy discussion.
What happens next: SFPUC is updating its Urban Water Management Plan and will provide revised supply projections and scenario analyses to planning staff and the Department of Water Resources. The commission asked staff to track how new supply and demand assumptions will affect CEQA water‑supply analyses for large developments.
