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ConnectSF staff present 'statement of needs' showing 2050 baseline falls short of climate and equity goals
Summary
Planning, SFMTA and SFCTA staff presented ConnectSF's Statement of Needs June 13: without new policies or investments the city will not meet its 80% sustainable‑mode goal or close equity gaps by 2050; TNC growth and transit crowding are prominent concerns. Next steps include transit corridor and streets/freeway studies and drafting a transportation element.
Planning Department staff and regional partners presented the Statement of Needs for ConnectSF — the city’s long‑range transportation and policy review — at the Planning Commission's June 13 meeting. The modeling exercise used a 2015 baseline and a 2050 ‘no further planning’ scenario drawn from Plan Bay Area inputs to show how jobs and population growth would interact with planned projects.
Key findings include: although absolute access to jobs by transit will rise by 2050, Communities of Concern (COCs) will gain less access than other residents; transit will be more crowded on central corridors and overall commute times would not meaningfully improve without additional interventions; and trips taken by TNC services (Uber/Lyft) increase at a faster percentage rate than other modes, undercutting the city’s sustainable‑mode goals. Staff said the model’s baseline assumes planned 2040 projects (e.g., Central Subway, Caltrain electrification) but not additional policy changes.
The ConnectSF team recommended next steps: transit corridor studies to address crowded lines and priority corridors; a streets and freeway study to address roadway management and congestion; and drafting a new transportation element for the general plan to formalize policy priorities and let the city seek state and regional funding. Staff emphasized the modeling is a baseline and that the studies will test candidate projects and policies to meet vision goals including equity, safety, sustainability and economic vitality.
Commissioners and public speakers raised questions about data inputs (TNC growth assumptions, scenarios for electric vehicle adoption and autonomous vehicles), funding gaps for transit operations and capital, and the need to update the model as new data become available. Staff said ConnectSF will publish interactive maps and a full Statement of Needs report later in the summer and will return with project concept analysis.
