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Planning Commission reviews Sea Level Rise Action Plan as city readies regional design challenge
Summary
City planning staff presented a Sea Level Rise Action Plan recommending citywide vulnerability assessments, a regional design challenge and a citywide adaptation plan; staff urged using 36 inches for CEQA planning and considering a 66‑inch upper bound for long‑range adaptation. Commissioners pressed for near‑term fixes for low‑lying areas.
City planning staff on Thursday outlined a new Sea Level Rise Action Plan aimed at coordinating city departments and regional partners to prepare San Francisco for rising seas and stronger storms.
"This document is a call to action," Gil Kelly, Director of Citywide Planning, told the Planning Commission, saying the plan lays out broad strategies rather than prescribing immediate solutions. Senior planner Diana Sokoloff presented the scientific basis and planning assumptions, noting that the plan uses the National Research Council's most likely projections as the planning baseline. "36 inches is the end of century projection, the most likely to happen projection, which is the number that we use for CEQA and other project approvals here in the City," Sokoloff said. She added the plan examines the National Research Council's upper‑range value (66 inches) to test adaptive strategies.
Staff emphasized three near‑term priorities: finish outstanding vulnerability and risk assessments across city agencies; roll those sectoral assessments into a single decision‑making framework so officials can prioritize low points and critical infrastructure; and launch a regional design challenge to generate implementable adaptation solutions that can feed into a citywide adaptation plan. Patrick Otellini, the city's Chief Resiliency Officer, said the Rockefeller/100 Resilient Cities grant helped fund consulting support and specialized risk modeling by Risk Management Solutions.
Port representative Brad Benson told the commission that most piers now sit about 12 to 18 inches above FEMA base‑flood elevations and noted a 2050 projection of about 11 inches of sea‑level rise; he said staff are already considering lease provisions and design responses for lower piers.
Commissioners used the presentation to press staff on near‑term and interim measures for neighborhoods already seeing flooding. Commissioner Moore asked how the city will protect downtown and low‑lying areas in the short term; staff described operational engineering measures such as backflow prevention, drainage cleanouts and targeted infrastructure work as stopgap steps while the longer‑term design challenge and seawall study proceed. Commissioners also discussed the need for adaptable designs—Treasure Island was cited as a development with an "adaptive capacity" to raise defenses incrementally.
The presentation stressed regional partnerships with agencies such as the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, the Coastal Conservancy and SPUR, and called for engagement with private developers to include shoreline adaptation contributions in project designs and financing.
The commission did not take action on the informational presentation; staff said next steps include completing vulnerability assessments and launching the design challenge and adaptation planning process.
