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Planning staff frames Plan Bay Area growth, RHNA asks San Francisco to absorb nearly 29,000 housing units
Summary
Staff briefed the commission on Plan Bay Area and the updated RHNA methodology, which directs a large share of regional housing growth and affordable units into priority development areas; San Francisco’s allocation for the next RHNA cycle was presented at roughly 29,000 units with a high share of below‑market allocations.
Planning Department staff summarized the regional Plan Bay Area process under Senate Bill 375 and the associated Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA). The presentation described a preferred land-use scenario that concentrates growth in Priority Development Areas, and preliminary allocations that place a substantial portion of the Bay Area’s projected growth in city cores. "For San Francisco, anticipated growth through 2040 is about 92,000 housing units and 191,000 jobs," staff said, and noted the next RHNA cycle anticipates San Francisco accepting nearly 29,000 housing units (January 2014–October 2022).
Staff explained the RHNA allocation’s income-band breakdown: about 21.6% of the allocation is for households under 50% of area median income, 16.1% for 50–80% AMI, 18.9% for moderate (80–120% AMI) and roughly 43.4% market rate. Commission members probed how RHNA numbers were derived and how local policies and zoning interact with the regional scenario; staff said the regional agencies developed the methodology with local input but there is some modeling “black box” to economic projections.
Commissioners and representatives of the mayor’s office and transportation authority discussed the tension between zoning for growth in transit-served areas and the persistent shortage of subsidy to build below-market housing. Staff noted that the region tied some transportation funding (the new "One Bay Area Grant" program) to jurisdictions’ housing production and RHNA participation as an incentive. The presentation was informational and no commission action was required.
